[Proculation]

xerxes xerxes:

I don't think there is even an -ism that can be applied to Mugabe's style of governance. It's almost pure anarchy.

Motto of Zimbabwe: "Unity, Freedom, Work"

[dino_bobba_renno]

I think the fact that this question is even being posed just shows us just how sheltered we've been from economic hard times for such a long time (10 years or so). Were in a recession, even suggesting this is anything even close to a "depression" is a bit over the top imo.

If anything we are simply going through a correction. Far too many people were living way too large on what basicly amounts to too little. Over extended credit, not enough thought as to how they were going to pay off the debt on the limited income they had and very little thought of what might happen if the economy were to take a turn for the worst.

[Proculation]

$1:

In economics, a depression is a sustained, long downturn in one or more economies. It is more severe than a recession, which is seen as a normal downturn in the business cycle.

Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.

This is from Wikipedia (sorry stemmer...).

Since the recession happened last year and the US and some months ago in Canada, we can't talk about a depression right now. In the 80s recessions and the one in 90, things like that was written too.

But lets take the criteras of the wiki article:

"abnormal increases in unemployment" - It's not abnormal in a recession.
"restriction of credit" - Yes.
"shrinking output and investment" - shrinking output, yes, it's a normal in a recession but investment ? i'm not sure.
"numerous bankruptcies" - Yes and no. The govt has something to do here.
"reduced amounts of trade and commerce" - It reduced in a normal way but we are still trading a lot.
"highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations" - Definetly not.
"Price deflation or hyperinflation" - There's a very little deflation but nothing alarming.


SO. According to all that, we are definetly not in a depression. A downturn yes but it's normal with the economic cycles.

[ziggy]

I think a lot of people are going to get a big freaking reality check in the next 6 month's or sooner.
Funny but right now a lot of people are in coast mode and either expect Obama to save them or ruin the "world's" economy and frankly the peeps blaming him are getting quite boring to listen to.
Same with here in Canada,a lot of people seem to be just carrying on thinking everything will be ok but when the sales dry up and the layoffs start happening then the reality will set in.
Then people will stop spending and start hoarding.

I'm trusting my instincts here and as a contractor with a few contacts I can say that the phone conversations I have had with them arent good.
Lot's of project's cancelled,Rig's being parked,project's put on hold untill the price of oil and gas go's up,exploration budgets hacked.

This is Alberta I'm talking about but If we take a hit you can bet the ROC will feel it.
I dont think we will hit depression status but wouldnt be surprised if it gets close in some areas,last recession I was paying a 22% interest rate on my mortgage so......

[Axeman]

In my professional opinion, this is a cyclical recession. My concern is that the pissing away of billions of dollars on crack-pot government bail-out schemes could MAKE it a depression. In the summer of 2007, I was concerned we were heading for a rough spell. I've been telling my students, for years, that we learned from the Great Depression and are now smart enough to not repeat the same mistakes (untethered credit markets and reckless government spending). I guess I have to admit I was wrong. Maybe we all need a good wake-up slap.

[Proculation]

ziggy ziggy:

This is Alberta I'm talking about but If we take a hit you can bet the ROC will feel it.

Funny the hear the "ROC" term including Quebec

[sandorski]

In 12-18 months, US Unemployment will be >10%.

[ziggy]

sandorski sandorski:

In 12-18 months, US Unemployment will be >10%.

I'll bet you a beer it's 3 month's.

[ShepherdsDog]

Warren Buffett admitted that he lost billions Now that is scary.

[Proculation]

ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:

Warren Buffett admitted that he lost billions Now that is scary.

Well, all his fortunes is in stocks. Even if he has good investments, that's sure he will follow the trend.

[martin14]

ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:

Warren Buffett admitted that he lost billions Now that is scary.

even he came out and said the economy will suck for 2009.. and the he dropped
the " and maybe farther than that " bomb

Now lord knows the gov't cant really do much to solve this,
and they arent real economic wizards. But Buffet saying these things,
dat's not good.

[sandorski]

ziggy ziggy:

sandorski sandorski:

In 12-18 months, US Unemployment will be >10%.

I'll bet you a beer it's 3 month's.

I won't take that Bet, because you could be right.